Nazarbayev wants to transfer power to his oldest son?
Viktor Khrapunov forecasts that the members of the Shaprashty clan, the offspring of the “nation’s leader” from his first marriage, and the former ministers of foreign affairs will collide in the fight for power.
Aleksey Tikhonov
Viktor Khrapunov, the former mayor of Almaty, told our observer, “Right now, this is the situation taking shape – Nazarbayev and the Shaprashty are clan #1. Clan #2 includes his first wife, Sara Alpysovna and their children. In addition, there are the former ministers of foreign affairs and the current specialists from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs who deal with issues related to the further improvement of the image of Kazakhstan and, of course, the President. They are the ones who will be fighting for power.” According to the former minister of extreme situations, the fight will be vicious, and there will soon be shifts in the power ministries.
Viktor Khrapunov: “The fight for power will involve the members of the Shaprashty clan, Nazarbayev’s children, and the ex-ministers of foreign affairs.”
At present, the Shaprashty clan members predominate in the government, and the leaders of the other groups dislike that, said Viktor Khrapunov in his comment on the latest changes in the power Olympus. In his opinion, several recently formed clans in Astana are already calculating their chances for success in case Nursultan Nazarbayev leaves the political stage. The country is ruled by the “southerners”. The start of this year was marked by the latest shifts and structural changes. We asked Viktor Khrapunov to analyze the reasons for Nursultan Nazarbayev most recent decisions.
Viktor Viacheslavovich, please comment on the latest shifts in Kazakhstan’s government. What do they mean for the political development?
– I think that, for the twenty or so years of Nazarbayev’s rule in Kazakhstan, a definite structure could have already been put in place so the country could move confidently forward with the People being given top priority as proclaimed by the Constitution.
Although, looking at what is going on in Kazakhstan today, I understand very well that many financial groups, clans, operating today in Kazakhstan exert great influence over the President. For a number of reasons and abilities (perhaps due to his health and age), he simply goes along with this or that suggestion of this or that group. We have always seen that the government has always been headed by representatives recommended by Kazakhstan’s financial groups. I don’t want to mention names now; you can just start with the very first Prime Minister and look all the way to the last one.
What clans have the greatest importance now?
– I think the main clan right now is the Nazarbayev’s clan. This is a southern group, the small Shaprashty clan which has occupied a number of key positions in Kazakhstan. See the discrepancy here – a small clan occupying a large number of key positions.
Representatives of what clan predominate in the government?
– Having studied the Cabinet’s composition, I can tell you right away: 13 ministers are from the southern clan, 3 are representatives of the Karaganda region where the President used to work, and only one of the ministers, the minister of defense Zaksybekov, was born in the Kostanay region. He was just born there, though, and he spent the rest of the time with the President, so, as the popular saying goes, it remains to be seen whether there is more of Shaprashty or Kostanay in him.
Let’s go back to the latest shifts…
– I think that these shifts were engineered by a particular individual, Bakhytzhan Sagintayev who is close to President Nazarbayev. The Ministry of Regional Development was specifically created for him to take over…
So you think that creating the Ministry as such was not a result of some government need?
– Well, see, there are 16 provinces in Kazakhstan – 14 regions (oblasts) and 2 cities of national importance. There is a Ministry of Economics and Budget Planning, there is a Ministry of Finance, there is a Prime Minister. All the regional development issues are solved by this triangle, well, and by the governor of the specific province as well.
Now though, the first Deputy Prime Minister, the minister of regional development, will interfere in the work of the minister of finance, the minister of economics, and will, directly or indirectly, hamper the Prime Minister in his work in that sphere. This is the same “divide and conquer” policy of Nazarbayev!
Even though the Prime Minister is also from Karaganda and is very close to the President, even here he is creating reasons for conflict. That is why I am absolutely convinced that this ministry was created for a specific person, and this person was appointed as the First Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan. Everyone needs a piece of the pie.
What other clans are we talking about?
– I think that the two other clans active in Kazakhstan have been Dariga Nazarbayeva’s clan while she was married to Rakhat Aliyev and Timur Kulibayev’s clan.
After Dariga separated from Rakhat Aliyev, they united. The President’s ex-wife Sara Nazarbayeva, Dariga Nazarbayeva, Timur Kulibayev, and we can definitely add a number of others as well – they have united, and they are eager to inherit the position of power in Kazakhstan. They are carrying out the ideas for the future democratic development of Kazakhstan and the democratization of all processes.
Dariga boldly speaks up in the Parliament, argues with the heads of ministries, government institutions, the government, voices her controversial thoughts, etc. What we see is an activation of the family: Nazarbayev’s first family and the children from his first marriage.
I understand why. Because they are now offended. Nazarbayev is busy strengthening his latest family where he has two lawful heirs whom he wants to raise as respectful members of society. It’s possible that he is carrying out the idea of transferring the power further, at least to his oldest son.
Who else is striving toward something in Kazakhstan, and what is it?
– Quite unexpectedly, a certain group has appeared which has been involved in the foreign policy matters of the country, that is, the former ministers of foreign affairs.
See, Tokayev, Idrisov, Saudbayev, and Tazhin used to be ministers of foreign affairs, and Abikayev was a first deputy minister of foreign affairs.
Through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, these people did everything possible in order to improve the global community’s attitude toward Kazakhstan. They were presenting Nazarbayev like a maiden of a marriageable age who needs to solve a number of questions. By the way, the republic has recently established an embassy in Sweden even though there already was a non-resident ambassador. In this, I see the MFA’s desire to continue the work toward having a Nobel Peace Prize awarded to him.
The members of this group have done a lot, of course. Take Saudbayev, for example at the time when he was an ambassador in the United States. As it happened, I had the chance to go to the United States twice during that period and was present at his meeting with senators and congressmen. They paid special visits to the provinces, he met with these people, and promoted the processes going on in Kazakhstan in order to change the opinion of the United States government about Kazakhstan and “Kazakhgate”. Especially “Kazakhgate”.
And they did resolve the “Kazakhgate” issue!
– Yes. And when this issue was pretty much resolved in 2006, Karim Masimov suddenly made a very clever move. He got ahead of everyone, became a Prime Minister in 2007, and was the closest person to President Nazarbayev for many years. I think that this exact glorification of Karim Masimov, the creation of certain conditions, is fraught with consequences. Masimov’s dream is to have real power.
Why are you so negatively disposed toward Karim Masimov? He is a decent, well educated administrator …
– Because there is no such thing as a former functionary. By the way, he was born in the People’s Republic of China, in the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region, and is Uygur by nationality, I have seen his medical record in the 4th Administration of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Health with my own eyes.
Is Karim Masimov forming some kind of independent group, or joining an already existing one?
– Masimov is close to the President, close to Timur, close to those who are in power today. While being a Prime-Minister, he developed a significant establishment. He established good relations with Russia, China, the United States. Karim Masimov aims to take up a position of power in Kazakhstan.
I think that in this situation, as a counterbalance to Karim Masimov, the candidacy of Imangali Tasmagambetov could be suggested to President Nazarbayev because he has established wonderful relationships with all the members of the Nazarbayev family: his first wife, his children, Timur Kulybayev, his latest wife. Everyone has a good relationship with Tasmagambetov but he is a man of nationalistic persuasion. This is fraught with certain consequences as well.
If we were to summarize our discussion about the clans…
– At the present time, the following situation is clearly observed: Nazarbayev, the Shaprashty are clan #1. Clan #2 includes his first wife Sara Alpysovna and their children. The former ministers of foreign affairs and the current specialists from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs who deal with issues related to the further improvement of the image of Kazakhstan and, of course, the President. They are the ones who will be fighting for power.
It appears that there is no successor as such; at this time, there are only potential successors?
– Recently, I got hold of a piece of fascinating information – the first deputy chief of the President’s Security Service left and established his own organization. Why is this happening? Since Nazarbayev’s health nowadays is a cause for some worry, then a situation could arise tomorrow when he will be unable to perform his presidential duties for health reasons. At that moment, it will be important who is next to him. Who will announce that he has fallen ill and is unable to do something – to give a speech, to sign something, etc. At the same time, this person will be the one to sign Nazarbayev’s decree for appointing the necessary person as a chairman of the Senate. This decree will be promulgated, this candidacy will be approved at a senate meeting, and an announcement will be made on the next day that Nazarbayev is unable to perform his duties as head of the state.
A relevant note
If you remember, Rakhat Aliyev described in his book how towards the end of a festivity, a jubilee, where Nursultan Nzazarbayev was present, a boxed cake was presented. When the box was opened, there was a grenade in it but it did not explode. This sharply changed Nazarbayev’s attitude toward life, and afterwards, he delegated all the negative issues to be solved to other people. He, himself, has never entered into a conflict with anyone.
So this could be done out of the public view, and the ordinary Kazakh people will find out about it post factum?
– By the time the announcement is made, everything will be coordinated and put on a “legal” basis. There are many rumors that Akhmetzhan Esimov will head the Senate of the Republic of Kazakhstan and that Kayrat Mamy will become the chairman of the Supreme Court and maybe even the Attorney General. This means that people who have a direct influence over the events in Kazakhstan have now started suggesting their own options.
President from outside
Interesting, doesn’t Tony Blair, the ex-Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, belong to this type of people?
– As it is well known, Tony Blair worked as an advisor to Nazarbayev for a year and received an extension of his contract with a remuneration more than double the previous one. The reason he was invited was to assist the government of Kazakhstan in fully developing society’s democratization, the freedom of speech, the freedom of information, etc. But the Kazakh people did not receive that today.
I would suggest to Nazarbayev that Tony Blair very skillfully and competently led the United Kingdom into a war with Iraq when the Parliament had received the false information that Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction. Under the pressure of the global community, the former Prime Minister Gordon Brown created a committee, and Tony Blair has already been questioned several times at the committee’s hearings. And something else – Tomy Blair was an advisor to Colonel Gaddafi. We all see what happened to Libya. In the same vein, I would like to say something about Margaret Thatcher. When Tony Blair was elected Chairman of the Labour Party, she said that he is the most dangerous labourist in the United Kingdom. She had already seen the danger Tony Blair brings to the United Kingdom. In her time, Margaret Thatcher was fond of Nazarbayev. She changed her attitude later on because in Kazakhstan flourished authoritarianism…
I would suggest to Nazarbayev to annul the extremely unfoundedly expensive contract with Tony Blair as a government advisor. It is better to conclude a new contract with a new president and invite the new president… For example, Nicolas Sarcozy is very suitable for this role. Or why not invite Condoleezza Rice?
It is necessary to set the task, the political issues, and let Mr. President take the position of the nation’s leader in accordance with the law. Let him remain the nation’s leader but invite a true executive who would put the economy in order and work for the end result, to increase the wellbeing of all people in Kazakhstan and not just of a certain clan.
Did I understand you correctly – you are suggesting that a hired president be invited to Kazakhstan from among the politicians of global importance?!
– Yes. And maybe it is worth suggesting to Nursultan Nazarbayev to appoint an interim president as it was in Kyrgyzstan with Roza Otunbayeva. When the processes in Kyrgyzstan became inevitable and it became clearly impossible to introduce a totalitarian regime, Roza Otunbayeva left, and the society started developing further along a democratic path. Why not suggest this option to President Nzarbayev?
Let us summarize. We are talking about attempts to introduce changes in the government and thus, on the one hand, to ensure the continuity of power, and on the other, to find a candidate for the role of a successor. And, as you said, in this fight, the emerging interests of several groups are involved.
– You understood me perfectly correctly. This, in a way, is my message in regard to what may happen in Kazakhstan. My thoughts on how the process can be changed and what needs to be done in this situation might be controversial. The government of Kazakhstan is not capable of resolving the issues related to the future development of the country, and it hires people who do not satisfy the requirements and the society’s expectations. This means it is necessary to seek new ways, new approaches. I think that the shifts and appointments which took place at the beginning of the year are not final at this stage. We will see changes in the power ministries of Kazakhstan in the very near future. We will not have to wait too long; it is right around the corner.
